Senior leader of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Qamar Zaman Kaira joined Dr. Moeed Pirzada to discuss the APC that PPP held recently. The APC was organized by PPP to discuss the future of military courts. PPP is the main opposing party on military courts extension. Qamar Zaman Kaira said, PPP always played a vital role as opposition. Giving his views about Panama leaks he said that approaching Supreme Court without proper legislation was useless which was the basic reason PPP did not go to Supreme Court on Panama issue. He condemned the media by saying that media is antagonist towards PPP. Our party does not support the extension of military courts because there is a chance of using the legislation for wrong purpose. He said that PPP is the most threatened political party by terrorists.
Tonight with Moeed Pirzada: Fawad Ch on PSL final in lahore !
PTI spokesperson Fawad Ch supported the statement of PTI chairman Imran khan. Imran Khan considered that the decision to hold Pakistan super league final in Lahore is wrong one. Both Fawad Ch and Imran Khan are of the view that there is no point in arranging the final under strict curfew like situation. Fawad ch while giving his opinion on this move of Pakistan government said that Imran khan is competing with large spin doctors. Fawad Ch said that what message will be conveyed to the world by keeping the schools and surrounding areas close before the final of PSL in Lahore.
PTI didn’t participate in people’s party led all parties conference held on issue of military courts. Fawad Ch said that PPP has lost its relevance in current political situation. The reason is they didn’t go to Supreme Court on panama issue and that’s why their move to conduct APC on military courts issue is to make space and relevance in politics.
The Prime Minister should never have invited Modi to his home: Asad Umar
Senior Party leader of Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf, Mr. Asad Umar said that it had been a misgiving on the Prime Minister’s part to not have bashed India when it has been openly blaming Pakistan for all its internal security issues and declaring Pakistan a terrorist state. The Prime Minister had avoided a direct question about Indian links to Pakistan terror attacks while speaking to press in Turkey, by saying that he did not believe in blame game and that he had always tried keep amicable relations with India.
Mr. Asad Umar further said that his party had had a very clear stance on Kulbushan Yadav. He said that it was not objectionable to them that the Prime minister had met Prime Minister Modi. ”But to invite a killer of 5000 plus Muslims to his home, Prime Minister Nawaz should never have done that”.
There has never been a proper case proceeding against Altaf Hussein: Raza Haroon
Secretary General of Pak Sar Zameen party Mr. Raza Haroon joined Doctor Moeed Pirzada to comment on the turbulent Karachi politics. Regarding Altaf Hussein’s red warrant issuance and the denial put forward by Interpol headquarters on the extradition request, Mr Haroon said that all said and done, the Pakistani courts have never convicted the MQM founder in a single case; had that been carried forward, it would have been very convenient, given all the local evidences.
The PSL match poses a threat to security all over; what is going to happen next?
Arsalan Rafiq Bhatti, senior journalist and Bureau Chief of Dunya News Lahore Bureau, joined Doctor Moeed Pirzada to present a brief analysis of the on-ground situation. He reported that as of now, the decision has not been about whether if the PSL final is going to to be held in Lahore or not. The PSL chairman Najam Sethi and Chief Minister Punjab Mian Shehbaz Sharif have held several meetings to analyze the situation. He further said that even if no insurgency takes place in the vicinity, the rest of the city will be a soft target, with all the security focused on the venue.
Tonight with Moeed Pirzada: Favor of negotiations and dialogue with insurgents 02
Rahim Ullah Yusufzai, prominent commentator and Air Marshal (r) Shahid Latif joined Doctor Moeed Pirzada to comment on the current security situation. Mr. Yusufzai said that the state needs to revise its internal counter terrorism policy, he said this in regard to law enforcement agencies. Air Marshal Shahid Latif said that he had always been in the favor of negotiations and dialogue with insurgents. This is an ailment that can never be completely eradicated unless it is brought to the table.
Tonight with Moeed Pirzada: Favor of negotiations and dialogue with insurgents 01
Rahim Ullah Yusufzai, prominent commentator and Air Marshal (r) Shahid Latif joined Doctor Moeed Pirzada to comment on the current security situation. Mr. Yusufzai said that the state needs to revise its internal counter terrorism policy, he said this in regard to law enforcement agencies. Air Marshal Shahid Latif said that he had always been in the favor of negotiations and dialogue with insurgents. This is an ailment that can never be completely eradicated unless it is brought to the table.
Pakistan Army raids inside Afghanistan: difficult decision but necessary
Moeed Pirzada |
ISLAMABAD – More details are emerging on the nature of strikes Pakistani Army did inside the Afghan territory – after the terrorist attack against the Sufi Shrine, Lal Shahbaz Qalandar, in city of Sehwan Sharif, in Sindh- in which almost 100 people died.
Initial reports poured in to international news agencies through Afghan police sources who reported intense shelling from across the border. Now it appears that four camps of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, an offshoot of TTP (Pakistani Taliban, now operating from Afghan territory) were targeted in the strikes across the border of Pakistan’s Khyber and Mohmand tribal agencies. And several members of the Al Ahrar group, including its deputy chief, Adil Bacha, have died in these attacks.
Border Raids, Not Surgical Strikes
Pakistan’s new Army Chief was quick and decisive with his response. Before the Pakistan army raids across Afghan border, Pakistan’s COAS, Gen. Bajwa spoke at length with Gen. Nicholson, top US Commander of the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) in Afghanistan.
Pakistani army sources clarify these attacks were not surgical strikes but intense, intelligence lead, targeted shelling on the camps that were visible from across the Pakistan border in Khyber and Mohmand tribal agencies. Pakistani forces used heavy weapons and mortar shells to hit several training centres of Omar Khalid Khorasani, the head of the Jamaat-ul Ahrar group. Pakistani authorities had protested to their Afghan counterparts several times on the open defiant presence of these camps, over the past several months. But Afghan authorities had failed to react.
Pakistani Restraint has exhausted: Gen. Bajwa tells Gen. Nicholson
After the terror attack at Sufi Shrine, in Sehwan Sharif, Pakistan’s new Army Chief was quick and decisive with his response. Before the Pakistan army raids across Afghan border, Pakistan’s COAS, Gen. Bajwa spoke at length with Gen. Nicholson, top US Commander of the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) in Afghanistan.
#COAS telephoned US Gen John Nicholson, Comd RSM Afg. “RSM to play its role to stop use of Afghan soil for terrorist attacks in Pak” #COAS. pic.twitter.com/7hP0HYJqZ3
— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 17, 2017
Apparently Gen. Bajwa made it clear that Pakistan’s patience and its policy of “restraint” has exhausted with the open presence of camps and clandestine activities of Al-Ahrar, a faction of TTP, at the Pak-Afghan border in clear visibility for all sides to see. Army action followed within few hours of this telephonic conversation, adding credibility to the impression that Gen. Nicholson understood Pakistani position.
Gen. Bajwa made it clear that Pakistan’s patience and its policy of “restraint” has exhausted with the open presence of camps and clandestine activities of Al-Ahrar, a faction of TTP, at the Pak-Afghan border in clear visibility for all sides to see.
While Pakistani attacks on the Al-Ahrar came after the suicide terrorism at the Sufi Shrine, in Sindh, but nuclear armed country of 200 million was subjected to series of bomb blasts and suicide attacks over the past one week. These included attack at the several hundred protesting chemists in Lahore, an attack on a judge in Peshawar, attacks on law enforcement agencies in Quetta and Awaran, Baluchistan and in tribal areas. Most of these were claimed by Al-Ahrar or ISIS; both groups operating from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.
Afghan Govt lacks control on its territory
Army understands that bombings will not finish off the activities of these groups, but pushing them away from border became necessary since they were easily coordinating their activities from there.
Afghan government lacks effective control on most of its territory. Peripheral areas are literally on their own. Pakistani army sources insist that Pakistan could have always retaliated and targeted terror groups operating from inside the Afghan territory. It was never an issue of capacity, however as Gen. Bajwa, reiterated with Gen. Nicholson, Pakistan strictly followed a policy of restraint.
Pakistani army sources claim that TTP groups, working under different names – like Al-Ahrar – have been openly operating from Afghan territory since Operation Zarb-e-Azb launched in early part of 2014 forced these groups out of Pakistani tribal areas (FATA). Army understands that bombings will not finish off the activities of these groups, but pushing them away from border became necessary since they were easily coordinating their activities from there. Once these groups move deeply inside Afghan territory, there can be other limitations and restraints on their activities.
Many Pakistani defense analysts have been arguing on Pakistani TV channels, that instead of border raids into Afghanistan, Pakistan needs to learn machiavellian strategies from India and should employ its own proxy groups against TTP for effective results and plausible deniability. It is however not clear if Pakistani agencies have that kind of influence inside Afghanistan any more.
Army hands over List of 76 to Afghanistan
Earlier Pakistan Army High command called Afghan diplomats to Garrison Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi, and handed over a list of 76 TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leaders that it considers responsible for terrorist attacks inside Pakistan.
Afg Embassy officials called in GHQ. Given list of 76 Ts hiding in Afg. Asked to take immediate action / be handed over to Pakistan.
— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 17, 2017
These names have not been publicly divulged inside Pakistan but gradually sources within Afghanistan reveal that these include: Khalid Khorasani, Mullah Faizullah and Khalid Sajna among others. Mullah Fazlullah had openly claimed responsibility, in a boastful video, for the worst terrorist attack in Pakistan’s history on Dec 16, 2014 when almost 150 young school children and teachers were killed by the terrorists inside Army Public School Peshawar.
NDS & RAW Nexus behind the TTP/ISIS Groups
Pakistani authorities have repeatedly asserted that such TTP groups enjoy support of elements within Afghan intelligence, NDS (National Directorate of Security). NDS has close links with Indian external agency, RAW. And Indian investments into Afghanistan, since 9/11, have bought Indian agencies deep penetration and influence within the Kabul government. Pakistan thus finds itself sandwiched in a two-front situation; something it had always struggled to avoid.
Combine Operations: 100 suspected terrorists dead
Meanwhile, Pakistan army has also launched “intelligence-based operations” across the country. Media, quoting sources in army, claimed that almost 100 terrorists have died in these operations. This lead to all kinds of speculations regarding the identity of these described as “terrorists”. However a source close to the army explains that the combing operations, were a natural follow up after the tragic terror attack at Sufi Shrine. These intelligence lead operations involved use of “Geo Fencing”, cordon and searches. Initial tips, through Geo-fencing, lead to widening of the searches and challenges. And most deaths have happened in shoot outs, when suspects, under challenge, tried running and escaping from the scene.
Terror Resurgence after Operation Zarb-e-Azb: Difficult and Complex Challenge for Pakistan Army.
Nawaz government is eager to claim credit for Army’s success – as it is doing after the terrorism in Sehwan Sharif and Army’s raid into Afghanistan – yet its ready to shift all blame toward the army on difficult decision making; for instance on India.
Islamabad based defense analysts and retired senior officers argue that this new series of terror attacks represent a very difficult challenge for Pakistan Army and its High Command – which is also responsible for the successful defense of CPEC. Perhaps more difficult than what army high command can afford to admit. Government and media assume that military is automatically responsible for providing protection against all kinds of threats. However government of PM Nawaz Sharif’s attitude towards Army’s needs and professional judgments is influenced by its own narrow political considerations. Nawaz government is eager to claim credit for Army’s success – as it is doing after the terrorism in Sehwan Sharif and Army’s raid into Afghanistan – yet its ready to shift all blame toward the army on difficult decision making; for instance on India.
Nawaz government never allowed Pakistan Army to conduct a clearing operation in Punjab where an intricate nexus exists between criminal elements, Jihadis and political elite in constituency politics. Nawaz Govt failed to capitalize on the arrest of Indian agency’s high profile saboteur, Kulbhashan Yadav, caught from Baluchistan. Recently Dawn Leaks, orchestrated by politicians close to the PM, appeared to be a deliberate attempt to humiliate Pakistan Army and please India.
RAW officer, during his debriefings, apparently admitted to his role of coordination in terrorist attacks across Pakistan, including Shia-Sunni sectarian attacks in Rawalpindi. Giving high international publicity to that case could have exposed Indian designs on Pakistan and would have provided a negotiation plank with Indian government. But Nawaz Sharif regime is seen soft on India, eager to court Indian PM, Narendra Modi in an apparent bid to obtain US and UK backing for its foreign policy of engagement with India. But if Indian agencies stand behind the terror networks operating from Afghanistan – as is becoming increasingly clear and as every institution in Pakistan believes – then without taking a strong public position towards India such terrorism, across Pakistan, will not be defeated.
Moeed Pirzada is a prominent TV Anchor and columnist. He studied International Relations at Columbia Univ, New York and was Brittania Chevening Scholar at London School of Economics & Political Science. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Global Village Space’s editorial policy.
Tonight with Moeed Pirzada: India is 200 Percent behind the recent wave of terrorism in Pakistan !
Former President Pervaiz Musharraf said that Afghan Intelligence Agency, NDS is playing in Indian hands and is being used as a tool for facilitating and promoting groups involved in terrorist attacks in Pakistan. In an exclusive interview with Dr Moeed Pirzada on DUNYA TV, the former military chief said that operation Zarb-e-Azb had no short comings, as it was specifically for North Waziristan. ‘’This operation cleaned up all the camps and launching pads of terrorist, who are supported by the Indian Spy Agency with the collaboration of Afghan Spy agency NDS, to destabilize the tribal areas.’’ The former President said that a holistic approach and planning is very crucial at the moment to curb terrorism in the Country. ‘’ Lashkar-E-Jhangvi has always been a sectarian outfit and is extensively involved in killing minorities in Quetta.’’ He added that this sectarian outfit’s masterminds are based in Punjab and are actively running sleeper cells, ‘’what steps are being taken to eliminate these sleeper cells, Punjab has become the strong hold of militancy. Musharraf claimed that in my tenure as a military chief and President of the Country, we were succeeding. “We were able to bring India to the negotiating table and to sort out issues that once India was not ready to discuss’’. WHY Musharraf did not wipe out these groups in his tenure Answering on the question that why he did not wipe out these outfits during his tenure, Pervaiz Musharraf refuted that these terrorist incidents and groups did not existed during his tenure. ‘’This all started after I stepped down, we had curved out effective strategy Viz a Viz Kashmir, we were near resolving Kashmir issue with India on four points agenda, our policies were successful , America and China was aligning with us, Suddenly what has happened’’. He added that his government was managing freedom fighters in Kashmir, and later it was realized that a political process was required to negotiate further with India. On the house arrest of Hafiz Saeed The former military ruler strongly criticized the house arrest of the JUD head Hafiz Saeed. ‘’Hafiz Saeed is not a terrorist, it should be established as he runs a very large charity, they contributed to relief activities in post-earthquake and post flood periods in Pakistan. He said that Hafiz Saeed is against Taliban and Al-Qaeda and that the nation should not be confused and that India is against them because their supporters go voluntarily to Jammu Kashmir to fight Indian army. ‘’India banned them through United Nations’’ he added. Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar cannot be compared Commenting on his earlier statements on Masood Azhar, he said that, no comparison can be done between Masood Azhar and Hafiz Saeed. ‘’ Masood Azhar is a terrorist, who is fighting the state of Pakistan’’. He said that Pakistan cannot give up Kashmir cause. ‘’ Giving up Kashmir cause will not improve anything with India and this opinion of the Pseudo liberals that doing so will improve our relationship with India is absurd’’. Explaining the strategic importance of Kashmir for Pakistan he said that, ‘’ all our water flows from rivers located in Kashmir and India has adopted aggressive strategy and it needs to be fight with counter aggressive strategy’’. Pervaiz Mushrraf said that Pakistan needs proactive approach on the diplomatic front, he added that Indian think tanks are writing about non-military warfare against Pakistan, he added, ‘’Unless we don’t improve governance, nepotism and weak leadership, Pakistan will struggle’’. On the issue of Panama, Musharraf questioned the legitimacy of Nawaz Sharif as a premier and declared it a serious issue.
Tonight with Moeed Pirzada: Pakistan under Renewed Terrorist Attacks !
In the past week, multiple suicide attacks and insurgencies gripped the nation and killed almost a hundred people. As Pakistan mourns over the loss and stands petrified in fear of further attacks, Rustam Shah Mohmand, former Ambassador to Afghanistan, Ikram Sehgal, prominent defense analyst and Major General (r) Aijaz Awan joined Doctor Moeed Pirzada in a live show to discuss the tragedies, the role of law enforcement and the road ahead. Rustam Shah Mohmand was of the opinion that the state machinery is dysfunctional and does not have any cooperation, which is why these attacks take place. He further said that any tragedies cannot be deplored after they have taken place, that is of no use. Mr. Sehgal said that these insurgents have poured into Afghanistan and are now operating from there.
Pakistan: Terrorism at Lal Shahbaz Qalandar Shrine; What does it mean?
Moeed Pirzada |
A suicide bomber struck inside the shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar, in the city of Sehwan Sharif, in Pakistani province of Sindh, in the evening of Feb 16. As of now hospital and police sources confirm more than 75 deaths – another more than 200 people are injured, many of them seriously and it is feared that death toll may steadily increase. Many women, elderly and young children are among those injured.
Asst Superintendent Police (ASP) Sehwan told media that a suicide bomber entered the shrine through the Golden gate. The attacker blew himself up after throwing a grenade, which had failed to explode. The explosion took place right at the spot where the dhamaal (Sufi ritual of ecstatic dancing) was being performed, within the premises of the shrine. Given the intensity of crowds at that place a very large number of people were directly hit by the metal pieces emanating from the suicide bomber.
Poorly developed Medical Facilities
The closest hospital to the shrine is around 70km away. And even there the facilities are not much developed. Most interior Sindh is poor in infrastructure and health facilities. Injured are mostly poor villagers; they suffer from multiple bleeding points, circulatory shock and organ damage and given poor health facilities it is feared that death toll will steadily rise within the next 24 hours – and later due to infections. Terrorist attack has again exposed the under-develpement of the province of Sindh.
Those who survived the blast will die of Bhutto’s legacy as the nearest hospital is light years away & has zero medical facilities.#Sehwan
— Saroor Ijaz (@saroorfiction) February 16, 2017
Lal Shahbaz Shrine:An Expected Target
Given the fact that Pakistan has been under a renewed wave of terror attacks since the last 5 days, by various inter-connected groups, who seem to be looking for “impact” and “large effect” the shrine of Lal Shahbaz Qalandar was an obvious choice. Thousands gather at the shrine every Thursday to pray and participate in the Sufi tradition of “dhamaal”, a form of devotional percussion and dance. And they constituted an easy target.
The 14th century shrine, built in 1356, is by the tomb of Syed Muhammad Usman Marwandi, the Sufi philosopher poet better known as Lal Shahbaz Qalandar, one of Pakistan’s most venerated saints – not only in Sindh but across Punjab. Each year, hundreds of thousands gather to celebrate “Urs”, his death anniversary. It was thus an easy and soft target; and given the new wave of terrorism across country remarkably unprotected.
Poor Security & Intelligence Failures
Traditional policing of Pakistan is best suited for showing presence and crowd control. Despite almost 15 years of continuous terrorist attacks, policing in Pakistan has failed to adopt itself to the nature and quantum of challenge. Police is tyrannical in serving the needs of political masters and ruling elites but has limited capacity to defend public or itself against specifically trained terrorists.
Traditional policing of Pakistan is best suited for showing presence and crowd control. Despite almost 15 years of continuous terrorist attacks, policing in Pakistan has failed to adopt itself to the nature and quantum of challenge.
In case of terrorist attacks, the kind of which are agains taking place, police is often the sitting duck. Police officers and force under them lacks specialization. Pakistani police officers are highly educated, many have studied abroad and tried specialization in different fields of criminology however police organizations suffer from endemic inertia; so transfer posting and placements of officers have no relation to their skills or education, and police officers even when they desire are unable to contribute professionally in improving performance. Police is deeply politicized and lacks spine as a public institution. There is no concept of carrier or professional development. In front of modern day terrorists, Pakistani Police is therefore merely a sitting duck.
Intelligence Failures
Pakistani Intelligence agencies, their officers and top management, though far better organized as compared to Police suffer from several incompetencies but they don’t want to hear any feedback on their performance. Any one providing a critical commentary on their professional incompetence immediately faces risk of being branded unpatriotic and can land into serious difficulties.
Read Also: Lahore Terrorism: Abject Failure of Pakistani Intelligence & Policing Institutions – GVS
However repeated terror attacks point out serious weaknesses in the working of these agencies; in their priorities, focus, skill sets and capacities – and is increasingly opening them to sharply worded criticism.
N1 be asked if its Afghan sponsored terror,how terrorists travelled KPK,punjab&attacked in Sindh without traced&caught?
Who is pathetic-me? https://t.co/yrAIErHcQO— Rauf Klasra (@KlasraRauf) February 16, 2017
Pakistan has two sets of intelligence agencies: ISI and IB. ISI is linked with Pakistan Army, though DG ISI is appointed by the PM, he is almost always a senior military officer and most senior officers under him are on depurations from military. This structure provides for confidentiality, loyalty and tight hierarchal control but its high time that top management of ISI should conduct an internal review to assess how much effective it is in countering the kinds of challenges Pakistani state faces. Review might point towards the technical and professional deficits the agency faces.
What is so pathetic in questioning your security agencies when they are unable to stop this bloodshed! It is a failure of security agencies! https://t.co/oFb6BMA3Yl
— Hidayat Khan (@hidayatkhan1031) February 16, 2017
Apparently ISI, as per rumor mills, spent past several weeks, investigating a case of blasphemy by certain bloggers – who were found mysteriously abducted and then mysteriously returned to their homes. If indeed this was the work of ISI, then it raises very disturbing questions about the priorities of country’s premier intelligence agency.
Pakistan’s civilian intelligence agency, Intelligence Bureau (IB) is a British era relic, which lost importance as ISI steadily rose to prominence in 1960’s and occupied all space. Under PM Nawaz Sharif, since 2013, it is believe that IB has seen large influx of funds and technical help from international agencies and has grown its surveillance muscle.
Apparently ISI, as per rumor mills, spent past several weeks, investigating a case of blasphemy by certain bloggers – who were found mysteriously abducted and then mysteriously returned to their homes. If indeed this was the work of ISI, then it raises very disturbing questions about the priorities of country’s premier intelligence agency.
According to sources, IB now has sophisticated abilities of monitoring cellular data, email communications, can now even penetrate Apps like Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp; however within Pakistan it seldom figures as a counter-terorism agency; it is mostly seen as loyal “eyes and ears” for the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and keeps monitoring opposition politicians, top army officers, civil servants, media tycoons and working journalists. So its more of a political asset for the regime than something professional to rely upon countering the kind of terrorism directed at Pakistani public or state.
ISIL Claims responsibility?
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group claimed responsibility for Thursday’s attack in Sehwan via its Amaq website. In November 2016, at least 52 people were killed in a suicide attack on a shrine to Sufi saint Shah Noorani in Balochistan province, and that attack was claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group.
However sources in the law enforcement agencies, during recent attacks in Baluchistan, had intercepted WhatsApp communications that revealed that one local group was sending messages to another group that responsibility for this act – which has just happened – should be taken by a group based in middle east on its website.
So the perpetrators of the terrorist acts, and those who claim responsibility are not necessarily the same. Apparently, an effort is being done to establish the narrative of ISIS/ISIl in Pakistan. And any critical questioning by Pakistani government agencies, police or media are then condemned as “in denial”
Read Also: Kabul blames Russia for “playing with fire” New Scapegoat? – GVS
But Pakistani experts observe that pre-existing groups inside Pakistan are adopting the name of ISIS/ISIL and some entity is willing to finance this transformation. For all practical purposes the center of gravity of these groups and this transformation is based inside Afghanistan. Pakistani agencies therefore suspect a nexus of Indian agency RAW and Afghan Intelligence, NDS, to be behind the brand development of ISIS.
Pakistani agencies therefore suspect a nexus of Indian agency RAW and Afghan Intelligence, NDS, to be behind the brand development of ISIS.
However Russian and Chinese diplomats, based in Islamabad, when speak in confidence, often suspect other international forces behind this unnatural advent of ISIS in the region. Russian interest in engaging Afghan Taliban into a solution stems from these concerns. Putin who took lead in weakening ISIS, in the Syrian theatre has always openly expressed his doubts about the “unnatural origins” of ISIS.
Read Also: Will Pakistan Muddle through or will CPEC allow it to control its destiny? GVS
Several Attacks, different targets, different claimants?
Attack in Sehwan Sharif, on Thursday, was almost seventh terrorist attack in Pakistan in the last 4-5 days. But claimants of responsibility are continuously changing.
The sudden outburst of these attacks, against targets very different from each other and intercepted communications in recent past – while being claimed by different groups – gives credence to the suspicions of Pakistan’s security apparatus and media that these groups are basically connected at the back end.
Lahore attack was claimed by Al-Ahrar; an offshoot of TTP, which is supposed to be based in Afghanistan. And whereas PM of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif was quick to condemn the Lal Shahbaz Qalandar attack as an attack against the Sufi Islam, the attack in Lahore took place against chemists and drug associations who were protesting against a law. Lahore attack was followed on Wednesday by a suicide bombing at a government office in the Mohmand tribal area, close to KP, and a suicide attack on government employees in Peshawar, killing six people. And two police officers were killed on Tuesday while trying to defuse a bomb in the Balochistan provincial capital of Quetta.
The sudden outburst of these attacks, against targets very different from each other and intercepted communications in recent past – while being claimed by different groups – gives credence to the suspicions of Pakistan’s security apparatus and media that these groups are basically connected at the back end.
Different groups, different targets help create the idea of a country torn by religious and sectarian strife for instance the attack at the Lal Shahbaz Qalandar Shrine can be interpreted as an attack by ultra-conservative Salafis or Sunni orthodox against the sufi Muslims. This is precisely how the western media and think tanks look at it from a distance. But when you connect the dots – different attacks, different targets, different claimants, 4-5 days and all acting almost in synergy for multiplication of effect – it becomes obvious that the the power that stands behind these various groups, and finances them and coordinates them, is principally interested in creating impact.
Hostile Powers:Sanctuaries in Afghanistan?
Gen. Asif Ghafoor, spokesman for Pakistan’s army, blamed recent attacks on “hostile powers”.
Recent Ts acts are being exec on directions from hostile powers and from sanctuaries in Afghanistan. We shall defend and respond.
— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 16, 2017
Read more: Lahore Bleeds: Is India Taking Revenge?
Moeed Pirzada is prominent TV Anchor & commentator; he studied international relations at Columbia Univ, New York and Law at London School of Economics. Twitter: MoeedNj
Lahore Bleeds: Is India Taking Revenge?
Moeed Pirzada |
After Feb 13th attack on protesting chemists outside Punjab Assembly, the predominant view in Pakistan has been that India is responsible for this attack. And most commentators have described it as an attempt to derail the expected PSL (Pakistan Super League Matches) in Lahore. Can India’s strategic design to continuously box Pakistan inside the epithet of “Epicenter of Terrorism” be so easily defined?
Explosion in Lhr in front of Punjab assembly.While appeasement to India policy continues by NS,Doval sabotaged holding of PSL final in Lhr
— Ghazi (@BasitShuja) February 13, 2017
A faction of TTP – Al Ahrar – claimed responsibility – but most Pakistanis see TTP operating from sanctuaries inside Afghanistan as merely a front end for Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies.
Were protesting chemists the target?
Michael Kugelman, a well respected analyst in Washington, has asked a very relevant question.
To those saying RAW behind today’s #LahoreBlast-explain to me why #India would want to attack, of all things, pharmaceutical manufacturers?
— Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) February 13, 2017
But the problem is that even Kugelman and all western experts will find it difficult to explain, convincingly, why would TTP or Al-Ahrar, decide to attack poor chemists of Lahore?
Problem is that even Kugelman and all western experts will find it difficult to explain, convincingly, why would TTP or Al-Ahrar, decide to attack poor chemists of Lahore?
The apparent explanation given by Al-Ahrar on a website, available in Urdu, that it is its determination to attack and kill the infidels (“murtads”; who have reneged on Islam) is as feigned and phoney as it could get. One has to have feet on the ground to understand that these bogus explanations are hastily crafted to provide a narrative to feed on, and sustain, an international narrative on Islamist terrorism.
What is the international narrative?
No denying that Pakistani intelligence agencies supported groups like LeT/JuD, and other Kashmiri Jihadi outfits, albeit more openly in the past than now, that attacked targets inside the Indian controlled Kashmir.
International narrative – that principally originated from India – is that Pakistan is both the epicenter of terror export in the region; and its also a victim of the blow back effect from the terror outfits that operate freely within its boundaries. This narrative, promoted by all sides – including Musharraf Govt – in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 may have had some element of truth then. But this narrative has outlived its utility – unfortunately its western proponents have never examined its obvious weaknesses.
No denying that Pakistani intelligence agencies supported groups like LeT/JuD, and other Kashmiri Jihadi outfits, albeit more openly in the past than now, that attacked targets inside the Indian controlled Kashmir. But the groups – like TTP and its ever new offshoots under different names – attacking Pakistani public, institutions, commercial interests and strategic assets are not the same. From the choice of their targets, their pattern of operating and their sanctuaries – first in border areas and now inside Afghanistan- it is obvious that their “masters” are elsewhere.
Why Chemists?
The latest attack occurred as around 400-500 chemists were protesting nearby against a new regulatory law. However, all circumstantial history points out that chemists were just the guinea pigs in a larger scheme of things. They became targets because they provided an easy target for the elements who needed to create impact in Lahore. It could have been anyone anywhere in Lahore; attackers needed “impact”.
Suicide Attacker: Does it matter?
After the blast the usual official practice of claiming that it was a suicide attacker which is often a clumsy way of saying, by police and political authorities in Pakistan, that: “it was not possible to defend against it”. For many liberal commentators and most in the west this is a proof that attackers were ideological; who else will blow himself up to kill others?
This, however, negates all the research in Pakistan that proves that “suicide bombers” are mere zombies; isolated, brainwashed and trained to die over a period of months and are sometimes sold or exchanged in a market like any other “product”.
Tragedy of Pakistani Police?
Police that looks strong and tyrannical to village farmers, poor in Pakistan and all those raising voices against a sitting regime is the most hapless and helpless victim of such terrorist attacks as demonstrated again today. Apart from three senior officers, it also lost two commandos of Elite Force and many more are injured.
Conspiracy to derail PSL matches in Lahore?
Commentators on social media quickly suggested that the blast was meant to derail plans to hold the highly-anticipated final of the Pakistan Super League (PSL) in Lahore.
Lahore blast and PSL final to be held in Lahore….
Can you connect the dots????— Saadia Afzaal (@SaadiaAfzaal) February 13, 2017
Research in Pakistan proves that “suicide bombers” are mere zombies; isolated, brainwashed and trained to die over a period of months and are sometimes sold or exchanged in a market like any other “product”
But there is no dearth of others – official mainstream commentators – who will call these speculations as “conspiracy theories”. What is a conspiracy theory and what is not itself is a huge debate. Before the end of Iraq war, in April 2003, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) were mainstream truth. Even today western commentators call all those ‘conspiracy theorists’ who believe that Bush and Blair and their administrations had will fully planned a war that destroyed middle east; official version is still that London and Washington were lead towards war by faulty intelligence.
The second edition of the annual T20 tournament – like the first – is ongoing in the United Arab Emirates due to security concerns, but apparently, after the recent military crackdown on extremism, officials were confident enough to pick Gaddafi Stadium to host the final – but let’s hold on this theory for a while.
Pakistan’s Orwellian Tragedy: Animal Farm?
Blasts and tragic deaths were followed – like an Orwellian routine from George Orwell’s Animal Farm – with meaningless empty statements of condemnation from those in the highest offices who are actually responsible for decision making to make people safe.
Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has very strongly condemned the blast that occurred at Charing Cross Lahore.
— PML(N) (@pmln_org) February 13, 2017
Statements of Condemnation & Bravado?
Condemnations are then followed by equally pathetic statements of bravado from those who feel completely secure and out of reach of the terrorists. Because several layers of most expensive security apparatus, paid by taxes of poor people, protects them.
Pakistan is a classic dark comedy of a nation of countless cerebral pygmies where politicians earn browny points for issuing statements of condemnation and sometimes blame others for not doing that – as if condemning an event makes a difference. Condemnations are then followed by equally pathetic statements of bravado from those who feel completely secure and out of reach of the terrorists. Because several layers of most expensive security apparatus, paid by taxes of poor people, protects them.
Such cowardly acts cannot deter the resolve of the Nation to stand against terrorism and our govt is committed to root out this menace: PM
— PML(N) (@pmln_org) February 13, 2017
Intelligence Agencies: We had warned?
And then there were usual claims from some quarters – intelligence agencies – that they had already alerted the concerned government departments that an attack is imminent. Later we will find out that such intelligence was vague, generalized and certainly not “actionable”. These kinds of intelligence claims are little better than my analytical warnings through television programs and twitter that Indian intelligence agencies and their proxies will plan series of events to focus attention on Pakistan both as a terror sponsoring nation and as an epicenter of terror while a new Trump Administration is settling down in Washington and developing its world view and priorities.
Intelligence Agencies: Story of continuous Failure?
The 24/7 surveillance, and state backed hackings through proxies, of cell phones, land lines, emails, social media chat sites, is used purely for political purposes for and against a ruling set up.
Have Pakistani intelligence agencies ever averted major terrorist attacks? While claims are there, but overall historical data does not support those claims. Since 9/11, Pakistani people, institutions and strategic assets have suffered hundreds of attacks and the intensity only reduced when Pakistani troops physically penetrated, cleared and held the border areas – commonly called sanctuaries – from where such attacks were planned. There is scant evidence, if any, that Pakistani civil and military intelligence agencies were able to penetrate, disable, unearth or dismantle terror networks through data collection, surveillance and intelligent dot connecting.
No wonder, despite being under attack continuously for more than 10 years, Pakistani agencies have not been able to offer and sell a broad interconnected picture to the world.
Pakistani Intelligence: Misdirected priorities & targets
Intelligence set up consuming expensive state resources against such soft stationary targets – political opposition & media – gradually loses its abilities against hard mobile targets that exhibit smart counter-strategies.
Ironically, a signifiant proportion of human (HUMINT) & technical resources (TECHINT) of both civilian and military intelligence agencies are spent on monitoring opposition politicians, media, (journalists like myself) business executives, untrustworthy politicians in the government, top civil servants and so on. The 24/7 surveillance, and state backed hackings through proxies, of cell phones, land lines, emails, social media chat sites, is used purely for political purposes for and against a ruling set up. Intelligence set up consuming expensive state resources against such soft stationary targets – political opposition & media – gradually loses its abilities against hard mobile targets that exhibit smart counter-strategies.
Intelligence Agencies: Chasing Blasphemy vs terrorists?
The recent abductions of few activists referred to as “bloggers” for want of a better definition is a classic example of what intelligence agencies can do or are capable off. That sordid episode – whose actual reasons and details are not understood – was commonly blamed on military linked agencies but civilian agencies are busy in similar antics on other fronts.
Fighting hard core terrorists: Skill deficits
Fighting a genuine intelligence lead war against the hard, well planned, equipped and financed anti-sate elements, supported by regional agencies and their proxies does not appear to figure highly on the priorities of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies and their political masters in Islamabad, Lahore and Rawalpindi. (Three main centers of power in Pakistan) – all patriotic claims and nationalistic jingoism not withstanding.
Huge resources are spent on developing “low quality propaganda assets” that occupy large space on print, electronic and cyber media and are used from time to time for witch hunt – like in case of blaming blasphemy on activists. Mental death has reached a level that no one asked: Since when is defending against blasphemy the responsibility of prized intelligence agencies?
PMLN Social Media Team: Another waste of resources
PMLN Social Media team, rabidly controlled from high offices, is yet another example of such waste of national resources. Bottom line is that Pakistan’s intelligence set up – be it MI, ISI or IB etc – is totally misdirected and thus incapable of fighting the multi-dimensional proxy war which other regional powers – mainly India in the East and Afghan agency, NDS, in the west – have imposed upon it. Regional agencies don’t have to directly sign, approve and control every act of terrorism; this is another confusion of Pakistani mind that every act of violence has to be individually sanctioned – so another meaningless debate follows. But whereas common people can be forgiven for their ignorance; failure of Pakistan’s intelligence and government agencies is grotesque.
What is terrorism?
What is terrorism? Terrorism is only a new name for strategic communication through violent means. Every bomb blast or volley of shots – suicide bomber that dies or the fedayeen that escape – is a message from some quarter. This is how the world of conflict has been for the past several thousand years, even when there was no TNT. However there are several elements in Pakistani media and civil society that, after every act of terrorism, discuss it as a local affair, an act of religious hatred or result of sectarian feelings etc, followed by condemnation of madrassas and obscurantism of mullahs and so on.
Mullahs, sectarians & terrorism?
No denying that such ugly issues do exist; but the kind of terrorism which Pakistan has faced since 9/11 exhibited clear strategic goals. Master minds have definitely employed everything – raid mullahs, TTP, Baluch grievances, Shia Sunni, Pashtun vs Mohajir, hurt feelings of Lal Masjid and so on – but the diversity of their methods and tools or assets should not confuse any rational mind from seeing the larger pattern – the bigger picture.
Failure of Liberal Intelligentsia?
Failure of the intelligence agencies is matched equally by those who are considered “Pakistani Intelligentsia” Whereas the intelligence agencies have been incompetent and politicized and have failed in developing the required precise nuts and bolts of counter-intelligence for counter-terrorsm (or CT), the mainstream intelligentsia (with traditional hold on narrative shaping) has not been able to develop a bigger picture of what’s happening.
Their class arrogance, power grab, desire to align themselves with the global narrative on Islamist violence and historical reactions towards religion – as a result of earlier bad experiences of 1980’s – precluded their thinking abilities and they have kept the debate on narrow ideological issues. They have also protected their turf by declaring anyone who disagrees with their ideas or analyses as “conspiracy theorist”. Result is that few prominent commentators in Islamabad are totally disconnected from the mass of Pakistani thinking. But no denying: there certainly are serious ideological issues in a country where a court finds it fit to ban celebrations of Valentine’s Day.
Valentine’s Day against Islam: Islamabad High Court https://t.co/OPLQL8D0V5 via @GlobalVillageSp
— Moeed Pirzada (@MoeedNj) February 13, 2017
However while Pakistan’s ideological issues, mental backwardness of conservative elite and anti-modernistic mind set of majority of the population are all huge impediments in terms of moving forward and becoming a part of the world; these issues are not responsible for terrorism.
All libtard thug who propagate this #ValentinesDay vulgarity in pak shud buy their daughters some Condoms fst 2 help them avoid miscarriage!
— Mehreen Sibtain (@Mehreen_Sibtain) February 12, 2017
Lahore Terrorism: Pakistan, epicenter of terrorism
What happened in Lahore on Mon, Feb 13, is part of the same broader strategic conflict that state of Pakistan finds itself embroiled with India and Afghanistan – since 9/11.
Players, agents, proxies, intermediaries, messengers, claimants, faces, events and victims keep changing but from attacks on Faisal and Mehran Bases, Kamra air base, ISI headquarters, police academies in Lahore or Quetta, parks and schools to Army Pubic School on 16th December, to assassinations in Karachi this master mind has been looking for an impact, an accumulated effect to destabilize Pakistan, to demoralize its citizens, to impose business and sporting isolation on it and to remind the world outside that Pakistan is both the epicenter of terror and unstable, ungovernable because of inner violent conflict. Add to this: goal to shape Pakistani politics in a desired direction.
Proxies follow a broad script, a general direction; and that is why no court, jury or government can ever conclusively link them with their masters
Regional agencies, as mentioned above, don’t have to directly sign, approve and control every act of terrorism; this is another confusion of Pakistani mind – and many in media – that every act of violence by a proxy has to be individually authored, scrutinized and sanctioned by its master. Proxies follow a broad script, a general direction; and that is why no court, jury or government can ever conclusively link them with their masters. When governments – like in India – offer irrefutable proofs to media; they are often creating and fabricating evidences to shape a narrative for the public and the world. Pakistani agencies have miserably failed in this area as well.
Indians have intelligently played various elements of Pakistani system against each other – for instance Dawn Leaks. This is a new ability developed in the past few years.
And despite all counter moves by Pakistani institutions – mainly Pakistan Army – and governments the narrative – of Pakistan being epicenter of terror & ungovernable – remains unaltered. Whatever dents Zarb-e-Azb made in this narrative are a loss to the strategic mind set. And as I have pointed out repeatedly in my programs on Dunya News, taking over of Trump administration, with a radically different world view, in Washington is a moment of great transition – this was an opportunity for Pakistan, which it has almost lost by now.
Read Also – President Trump: What about Pakistan & India? GVS
Pakistan: Lost the Trump moment?
Trump emergence had suddenly broken the inertia of past eight years. And its vitally important for the Indian strategic community and agencies to keep the narrative of “terror sponsoring & internally unstable Pakistan” alive. And thanks to Pakistani incompetence, civil military divide, political insecurities of Nawaz government and its reliance upon Indian factor to counterbalance and politically control Pakistan Army have all helped Indian strategic mind set.
Indian Penetration into Pakistani System?
Indians have intelligently played various elements of Pakistani system against each other – for instance Dawn Leaks. This is a new ability developed in the past few years. Pakistani failures are multiplied due to weak educational system, collapsing national institutions and therefore an inability to grasp the importance of “narrative shaping”. Indian intelligence setup, its foreign policy community, its think tanks and media are far more tuned to the world than their Pakistani counter-parts.
Pakistan: Not Innocent either?
Insiders will argue that this strategic conflict is older and 9/11 merely heightened the faultiness. When recently conservative TV Anchor, Bill O Reilly, called Putin a killer in front of Trump, he retorted by arguing that America has not been innocent either. That was politically most incorrect but factually true. An analyst, like myself, has more freedom than a president; Pakistan too has not been innocent and Indian and Afghan intelligence agencies are doing what we have been doing ourselves inside their territories.
Is India taking revenge?
But this is not merely vengeance. This strategic communication is not tit for tat; its not settling scores; it has futuristic goals. Its not merely a reaction; anyone considering it a reaction will inevitably conclude that if Pakistanis stop doing something for instance political meddling in Kashmir then India will respond in kind and things will stabilize. This seem to be the view created by PMLN top leaders and quiet possibly Nawaz Sharif may actually be believing in it. However this is not going to happen; Nawaz government has no idea how to deal with all this. India’s strategic calculus is simply beyond them.
Not War, Not Peace?
A recent book by two US scholars – Not War, Not Peace? by George Perkovich and Toby Dalton- though written from an Indian prism; as to what India needs to do to rein in Pakistani terrorism and interventions becomes a must read for all Pakistani decision makers.
My take: Pakistan needs real negotiations, behind the scene talks with India and other powers and help from United States, China and Russia and its own strategic communication. Will it be able to do it? Recent history does not offer much promise. I am sorry for being an “analyst” and not a “lobbyist”.
Moeed Pirzada is prominent TV Anchor & commentator; he studied international relations at Columbia Univ, New York and law at London School of Economics. Twitter: MoeedNj. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Global Village Space’s editorial policy.